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Steelhome website publishes monthly report of eight kinds of steel and
raw material products including construction Steel, HRC/CRC, medium
plate, stainless steel, iron ore, coke, scrap and ferroalloy on or
before the 6th of each month. If you are interested in
SteelHome Monthly Report, please contact
Annieli@steelhome.cn,
Info@steelhome.cn, or dial 86-21-50585733/50585368/50585358
Summary:
Monthly Report on China Construction Steel Market for April, 2010
China
construction steel market went up amid fluctuation in April, 2010.
Construction steel price extended the rising streak in the first half of
April while retreated in the latter half. Profit-taking, nationwide
property market regulation, Goldman Sachs fraud case and Europe ’s debt
crisis cooled the sentiment and it is the main cause of construction
steel price drop in the latter half of April. To beat speculative
ventures in real estate and curb the rapid price hike is the aim of
property market regulation and one of the measures is to increase new
home supply. Therefore, investment in real estate will not plummet in a
short run.
The
release of construction steel production capacity will be restrained in
the near future as the nation vow to realize the country's green goal to
cut energy intensity, raw material supply tends to tighten and the
prices remain high. Low-price resources will be gradually digested after
the correction in the latter half of April and it is expected that China
construction steel market will rally in May, 2010.
I
Review on
April market
I.1
Construction steel production grew rapidly and oversupply weighed
I.2
Fixed assets and real estate investment kept rapid growth and
construction steel demand remained strong
I.3
Construction steel inventory fell significantly
I.4
Money
supply remained abundant
II
Analysis
on May Market
II.1
Despite intensive regulations on property market will cool the
sentiment, construction steel demand will remain robust
ll.2
Construction steel production will keep high but the nation’s ongoing
efforts on realizing green goals will curb capacity release
II.3
China
is tightening credit but money supply will remain abundant
ll.4
Raw
material price keeps rising and input cost hike props construction steel
price up
ll.5
Steel mills successively increase ex-works prices, which are well above
market price
Table 1:
Spot price
of China wire rod/rebar in April
Table 2:
Ex-works prices of China’s leading steel mills in April, 2010
Graph 1:
Q235 6.5mm
wire rod price trend in April 2010
Graph 2:
HRB335 20mm price trend in April, 2010
Graph 3:
Monthly output and growth of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 4:
Accumulative output and growth of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 5:
Daily output of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 6:
Construction steel import in 2009-2010
Graph 7:
China construction steel export in 2009-2010
Graph 8:
China semis import and export in 2009-2010
Graph 9:
Monthly supply of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 10:
Accumulative supply of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 11:
Urban fixed assets investment in 2009-2010
Graph 12:
Real estate investment in 2009-2010
Graph 13:
China construction steel inventory in 2009-2010
Graph 14: China’s money supply growth in 2009-2010
Monthly Report on China HRC/CRC Market for April, 2010
China
HR/CR sheet market vibrated among upward trend in April. Till April 30,
1.0mm CR plate, 2.75mm and 5.75mm HRC is averaged at CNY 6035 per tonne,
CNY 4771 per tonne and CNY 4628 per tonne, up CNY 39, CNY 155 and CNY
164 per tonne over the prior month.
The
supply pressure is expected to relieve as steel demand is getting strong
in May. Chinese steel mills will continue to see high level of metallics
prices. As macro economic polices’ influence on steel market is waning,
China HR/CR sheet market may rally in May.
I
China
HR/CR sheet market vibrated in upward move
II
Outlook on HR/CR market for May
ll.1 China domestic economic development will drive up steel
demand
ll.2 Money
supply remain ample
ll.3
Available supply of HRC/CRC remain rapid rise
ll.4 China
HRC/CRC inventory would continue dropping in May
ll.5
Global steel price expected to rise further
ll.6
Chinese steel mills would continue raising HRC/CRC price
ll.7
Chinese steel mills are confronted with higher operation cost
Table 1:
Price index of China steel product
Table 2:
HRC/CRC prices in key markets in April 2010
Table 3:
HRC/CRC
Output, Import/export and Supply in March 2010
Table 4:
China CRC Output, import, export and supply in March 2010
Table 5:
CRC price policy adjustment in April 2010
Table 6:
HRC ex-works price adjustment in April 2010
Graph 1:
Average price of HRC/CRC in China key markets in 2008-2010
Graph 2:
Money output of HRC in 2009-2010
Graph 3:
Accumulative output of HRC in 2009-2010
Graph 4:
China HRC imp/exp in 2009-2010
Graph 5:
China HRC available supply in 2009-2010
Graph 6:
Accumulative supply of HRC in 2009-2010
Graph 7:
China CRC output in 2009-2010
Graph 8:
Accumulative CRC output in 2009-2010
Graph 9:
China CRC imp/exp in 2009-2010
Graph 10:
Available supply of CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 11:
Accumulative supply of CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 12:
China HRC/CRC daily production in 2009-2010
Graph 13:
Daily supply of HRC/CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 14:
China HRC inventory at spot market in 2008-2010
Graph 15:
China CRC inventory at spot market in 2008-2010
Graph 16:
SteelHome global steel price index in 2008-2010
Graph 17:
Global HRC market price in 2008-2010
Graph 18:
Global CRC market price in 2008-2010
Monthly Report on China Iron Ore Market for April 2010
China
iron ore price hiked constantly in April 2010, however, dampened by
overall steel price drop from late April, iron concentrates price in
northern China dipped to some extent. Miners in southern China were
reluctant to supply due to slow price growth from steel makers. Steel
mills’ iron ore inventory went down as a whole and miners intended to
raise iron concentrates price.
The
actual dealing price of Indian fines (a grade of 63.5 percent) has
climbed up to US$ 184-187 per tonne (CIF) at the end of April, US$ 30
per tonne higher than that of end March.
Presently, iron ore output of local mines recovered gradually, however,
due to all-time pig iron output, market demand for iron ore retains at
high side, together with small increment of the arrivals of imported
ore, it’s hard to see iron ore price fall, it is predicted that iron ore
price will pick up to rise after a slight adjustment in May.
I China iron ore price kept growing in April 2010
II Analysis on China iron ore market in May 2010
II.1
Available iron ore supplies is likely to rise in May 2010
II.2 Price of imported iron ore picked up remarkably
II. 3 Ocean freight to fluctuate mildly in May
II.4
Iron ore inventory at ports shed as a whole
II.5 China steel price fell after rise in April 2010
II.6 Manufacturing cost of steel makers to hike from April
2010
II.7 Indian iron ore export appear much more difficult
II.8 Steel mills’ domestic ore inventory fell
Table 1:
China iron ore price in Jun. 2009-Apr. 2010
Table 2:
Steel Price Changes at Domestic Market
Graph 1:
China iron ore price in 2009-Apr.2010
Graph 2:
China iron ore output VS import in 2009-Mar.2010
Graph 3:
Price contrast between domestic & imported ore in 2009-Apr.2010
Graph 4:
International ocean freight in 2009-Apr.2010
Graph 5:
China iron ore import & inventory at ports in 2009-Apr.2010
Monthly Report on China Scrap Market for April 2010
During
the first twenty days of April, Chinese steel price continued climbing
up and domestic steelmakers expanded scrap bookings, which helped push
up scrap price to hit a historic high since 2009. International scrap
price jumped up successively, and China 's scrap imports dived sharply.
On the
stable increase of China 's steel demand and obvious improvement in
world steel demand, China 's steel production will remain high in May.
Domestic-produced scrap resources perform tight and imported resources
fall off, thus Chinese steelmakers will have difficulty to secure scrap
supplies. SteelHome predicts that Chinese scrap market price will
perform weak at first and then turn better in later period of May.
I Review on China scrap market in April 2010
l.1 Chinese scrap market price climbed up steadily
l.2 Rising
steel price pushed up scrap demand
l.3 Steelworks' scrap inventories & purchase price adjustment
I.4 International scrap prices growth rate
slowed down
II
Outlook on China scrap market in May 2010
ll.1 Scrap resources tension to keep unchanged
ll.2 Scrap imports continue decreasing
ll.3 Domestic scrap demand to perform stable
ll.4 International scrap price to be adjusted
ll.5 Pig iron price to remain firm
Table 1:
6 -10mm
Scrap purchase price adjustment in Apr. 2010
Graph 1: China 6-10mm scrap prevailing price in 2009-
Graph 2: Scrap price VS rebar in east China in 2009-Apr.2010
Graph 3: Scrap use $ inventory of steelmakers in 2009-Mar.2010
Graph 4: Japanese scrap average price in 2009-Apr.2010
Graph 5: China scrap imports & import price
in 2009-Mar.2010
Graph 6: China scrap import price in
2009-Apr.2010
Graph 7: China iron-to-steel ratio curve in
2009-Mar.2010 |
