|
Steelhome website publishes monthly report of eight kinds of steel and
raw material products including construction Steel, HRC/CRC, medium
plate, stainless steel, iron ore, coke, scrap and ferroalloy on or
before the 6th of each month. If you are interested in
SteelHome Monthly Report, please contact Info@steelhome.cn, or dial
86-21-50585733/50585368/50585358
Summary:
Monthly Report on China Construction Steel Market for July, 2010
China
steel market headed up after a drop in July, 2010. Construction steel
price rallied in the second half of July, which should be attributed to:
a) steel mills intensified maintenance; b) the relationship between
supply and demand improved; c) Chinese government would stick to the
pro-active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the
second half of this year to ensure a stable and relatively rapid
economic development; d) raw material price remained high.
I Review on July market
I.1 Construction steel production growth slowed and oversupply pressure
slightly eased
I.2 Economic growth slowed in Q2 but fixed assets and real estate
investment grew relatively fast
I.3 Construction steel inventory fell sharply
I.4 Money supply poised to be abundant
II Analysis on August Market
II.1 China would stick to the pro-active fiscal policy and moderately
loose monetary policy, which will pep up market confidence
II.2 Real estate investment keeps relatively rapid growth,
indemnificatory housing and high speed rail construction accelerates,
which will shore up construction steel consumption
II.3 Steel industry consolidation and backwards elimination will
accelerate as MIIT announced new policy for obsolete steel capacity
closure in China
II.4 The upsurge in iron and semis price shores up construction steel
price
II.5 Central Bank turns to net capital injection while money supply will
remain sufficient
II.6 Ex-works price close to market price, which will help kindle steel
traders’ enthusiasm
Table 1
Spot price
of China wire rod/rebar in July
Table 2
Ex-works prices of China’s leading steel mills in July
Graph 1
Q235 6.5mm
wire rod price trend in July 2010
Graph 2
HRB335
20mm rebar price trend in July 2010
Graph 3 Monthly output and growth of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 4 Accumulative output and growth of construction steel in
2009-2010
Graph 5 Daily output of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 6 Construction steel import in 2009-2010
Graph 7 Construction steel export in 2009-2010
Graph 8 Semis import and export in 2009-2010
Graph 9 Monthly apparent consumption of construction steel in 2009-2010
Graph 10 Cumulative apparent consumption of construction steel in
2009-2010
Graph 11 China’s urban fixed assets investment in 2009-2010
Graph 12 Real estate investment in 2009-2010
Graph 13 China construction steel inventory in 2009-2010
Graph 14 China money supply growth in 2009-2010
Monthly Report on China HRC/CRC Market for July, 2010
China
HRC/CRC market bottomed out in July. Till July 30, average price of
2.75mm and 5.75mm HRC in China were CNY 4393 per tonne and CNY 4244 per
tonne, up CNY 106 per tonne and CNY 123 per tonne over the prior month.
Average price of 1.0mm CR plate were CNY 5179 per tonne, down CNY 68 per
tonne over the prior month.
The
growth rate of supply may further decline. China domestic economy
sustain rapid and stable growth; investment, industrial added value grow
slower; consumption and exports continue turning better. Steel mills are
punched by higher raw material price and they may further strengthen
production cutbacks. China HR/CR sheet market would recover and rise in
August.
I
China
HR/CR Market Bottomed out in June
II
Daily output of HR/CR sheet hit record high in June
III
Outlook
on August Market
III.1
Chinese economy remain good, but growth rate of some industries slows
III.2
Credit loans in H2 may rise year on year
III.3
Available supply will continue to rise fast
III.4
China HRC inventory dropped but CRC inventory maintained high
III.5
Global steel market may rally
III.6
Ex-works price is close to market price
III.7
Iron ore price rallied and pushed up steel market
Table 1
SteelHome China Steel Price Index (SH_CSPI) in July
Table 2
HR/CR Prices in China Major Markets in July
Table 3
China HRC/CRC Production in June
Table 4
CRC Output, Import/export and Supply in June, 2010
Table 5
EXW
Price of CRC in July
Table 6
EXW
Price of HRC in July
Graph
1 Average price of China HRC/CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 2 China HRC monthly production in 2009-2010
Graph 3 Accumulative production of China HRC in
2009-2010
Graph 4 China HRC import/export in 2009-2010
Graph 5 Apparent consumption of HRC in 2009-2010
Graph 6 Accumulative apparent consumption of HRC in
2009-2010
Graph 7 China CRC monthly production in 2009-2010
Graph 8 Accumulative production of China CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 9 China CRC import/export in 2009-2010
Graph 10 Apparent consumption of China CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 11 Accumulative apparent consumption of HRC in 2009-2010
Graph
12 Daily production of China HRC/CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 13 Daily apparent consumption of China HRC/CRC in 2009-2010
Graph 14 China HRC inventory in 2008-2010
Graph 15 China CRC inventory in 2008-2010
Graph 16 SteelHome global steel price index in 2008-2010
Graph 17 Global HRC price trend in 2008-2010
Graph 18 Global CRC price trend in 2008-2010
Monthly Report on China Iron Ore Market for July 2010
China
iron ore price ceased falling and tended to be stable in July. Iron ore
price kept dropping in the first half of July but took lead in rising in
northern China from the second half, however, iron ore price continued
falling in southern China and was inclined to be stable at the end of
the month.
Due to
previous de-stock as well as steel price rise, steel mills in northern
China expanded iron ore purchasing, driving iron ore price up rapidly.
A grade
of 63.5 percent Indian fines bottomed US$ 122-123 per tonne (CIF) this
month. Compared with domestic ore, imported ore seemed quite attractive
in price, under this circumstance, domestic steel mills and traders
enlarged procurement, consequently boosting its quotation to US$ 143-145
per tonne (CIF). If steel price can go up further in the future, it is
predicted that steel makers are bound to increase purchasing and iron
ore price is potential to rise further.
I.
China iron ore price ceased falling and tended to be stable in July
II
Analysis on China iron ore market in August 2010
II.1 China
available iron ore supply dipped slightly in July
II.2
Price of imported ore ceased falling step by step
II.3
Ocean freight is potential to rise in August 3, 2010
II.4
Iron ore inventory climbed up significantly at ports
II. 5
China iron ore price fluctuated upward in July
II.6
Japanese and S Korean Steel makers accepted Miners’ price raising
requirement in Q3 2010
II.7
Indian government restricted iron ore export
II.8
Iron ore output of major miners climbed up as a whole in Q2
II.9
Chinese steel mills enlarge iron concentrates purchase
Table 1 China iron ore price in Aug.2009-Jun.2010
Table 2 Steel Price Changes at Domestic Market
Graph 1 China iron ore price in 2009-July 2010
Graph 2 China iron ore output VS import in 2009-June 2010
Graph 3 price contrast between domestic & imported ore in 2009-July 2010
Graph 4 International ocean freight in 2009-July 2010
Graph 5 China iron ore imports & inventory at ports in 2009-July 2010
Monthly Report on China Scrap Market for July 2010
Chinese
scrap price volatilized in July, and the market was coldly-treated by
buyers (steelmakers & traders) who commonly lost money in the month.
Parts of Chinese steelmakers re-expanded the imports because scrap
export prices of East Asian and US's suppliers continued falling.
Current
scrap resources in China are still tight, both steelmakers and traders
hold low stockpiles. Chinese steel price increased with fluctuation from
late July, and some steelmakers plan to rejoin in scrap markets.
SteelHome anticipate that Chinese scrap price will spiral up in August.
I Review on China scrap market in July 2010
I.1 Chinese scrap price fluctuated slightly
I.2
Scrap transaction decreased as increased steelmakers
overhauled facilities
I.3
Steelworks' scrap inventories & purchase price adjustment
I.4
International scrap market witnessed both ups
and downs
II Outlook on China scrap market in August 2010
II.1
Scrap resources in China to remain tight
II.2 Scrap imports to drop
II.3 Chinese scrap demand to go up slightly
II.4
International scrap market
II.5
the prices of related products to rally
Table 1
6
-10mm Scrap purchase price adjustment in July
Graph
1 China 6-10mm scrap price in 2009-2010
Graph 2
Scrap price VS rebar in East China in 2009-2010
Graph 3
Scrap consumption & inventory of Chinese steelmakers in 200--2010
Graph 4
Japanese scrap average price in 2009-2010
Graph 5
China scrap import volume and price in 2009-2010
Graph 6
China scrap import price in 2009-2010
Graph 7
China iron/steel ratio curve in 2009-2010 |
