Prices for benchmark Japanese imports of coal for its steel and
metals-making furnaces may drop by around 25 percent as the fuel nears the
cheapest it has been for three years, say sources close to the final round
of this year's quarterly price talks.
Japanese steelmills and Australian producers are likely to settle
for $160-$170 a tonne FOB Australia
for the fourth quarter, a sharp drop from the previous quarter but still a
premium of $10-20 above spot prices, producers and traders said.
The Japanese-Australian quarterly price is still the most important
benchmark against which other types and origins of metallurgical coal is
sold and a key indicator of the market's strength, despite the growing
acceptance of recently-introduced daily index prices.
Spot prices for all metallurgical coals - from premium hard coking
coal to semi-soft, pulverised PCI and anthracite - have slumped by over 25
percent since July with iron ore's slide because of the global steel glut
and China's slowdown.
Japan
is the world's largest importer of coking coal but the steep growth
projected for medium-term demand will be dominated by China and India,
particularly for spot sales.
Major mining houses Anglo American, BHP Billiton , Rio Tinto ,,
Xstrata and Vale have enjoyed the steel-driven boom but some are now
shutting mines and cutting jobs. Output cuts may eventually bite and start
to reverse the price trend.
This is a significant short-term concern for the mining majors
whose fortunes depend on China continuing to see a construction boom
requiring iron ore, coking coal, cement and power.
"At the end of August the Q3 quarterly price of $225, which
was settled in June, looked extremely strong and now even $185 is
certainly looking too high," said Jim Truman, metallurgical coal
analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Metallurgical coal for years was one of the commodities in tightest
supply and with the strongest margins because soaring construction in
China and India absorbed ever-rising quantities which could hardly be
shipped quickly enough, spurring coal mining M&A and investment.
But new sources of supply, global economic woes and more recently,
China's slowdown, have eroded producers' margins to the point where some
are selling at below their cost levels.
Mongolia is increasingly eating into Australia's share of imports
into China.
Since the 2011 tsunami which slashed Australian exports to Japan,
end-users everywhere were forced to try blending lower-cost, lower quality
metallurgical coals from Colombia and the United States and have become
adept at saving money by doing so.
Prices for iron ore, also used to make steel, may be close to the
bottom but metallurgical coal, particularly of lower quality types, can
fall further.
"Iron ore is near the bottom and starting to creep higher but
coking coal is more vulnerable and has further to fall," said Marcus
Garvey, analyst with Credit Suisse.
Iron ore spot prices fell last week to a three-year low of $86.70 a
tonne, having slumped by 36 percent in two months while hard coking coal
spot prices have sagged by 25 percent from around $200 in June to $150,
leaving end-users and traders reluctant to do fresh deals when prices are
vulnerable and demand uncertain.
"Coking coal prices have gone down 25 percent since June and
will stay weak for a while because demand is relatively poor," said
Peter Fish, managing director at UK steel consultancy Meps.
"The Chinese look to be reducing their rate of demand for
steel and they are overstocked, so it's certainly likely that growth in
demand for steel will be near zero in the next few months," he added.
CHINA PSEUDO STIMULUS?
China said last week it will spend $150 billion on infrastructure
projects but many were already in the pipeline and are on a smaller scale
than those funded by the cash transfusion which followed the 2008 crisis,
raw materials suppliers and analysts said.
"This is a pseudo stimulus if you look at it closely, spot
prices rose but there is almost no desire from China now to buy any kind
of met coal, not hard coking, anthracite, semi-soft or any of the grades
which they've got used to taking, it's extremely tough to sell at any
price," said one Asia-based steel raw materials trader.
"The problem is not that prices have dropped and that's
causing difficulties, the problem is steel demand in China and I don't
think we've seen the worst of it yet," he added.
Metallurgical coal output is already being trimmed - cuts have
happened faster and harder than many players had expected.
At least 10 million tonnes of U.S. coking coal output has been cut
this year, and more cuts are likely by producers who cannot export
profitably.
Consol, one of the U.S.'s biggest coking coal exporters, last week
said it was idling its 5 million tonnes a year Buchanan coking coal mine
for 30-60 days due to the depressed market.
"Metallurgical coal will see more international tonnage coming
under pressure, for example, BHP cutting production in Australia,"
said Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at Macquarie Bank.
Australian miners face a margin squeeze because spiralling costs
and currency have propelled Australia close to the top of the global
league table of coal mining costs.
"In 2011 all the analysts wanted to know about mining costs
and profits, it was all about acquisitions but 12-18 months later miners
are burdened by debt and there's no guarantee of $200-250 a tonne prices
forever - people failed to see the underlying issues," a major U.S.
coal trader said.
Reuters
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