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Wu Wenzhang Spoke at 21st Middle East Iron and Steel Conference

http://en.steelhome.cn [SteelHome] 2017-12-11 09:48:23

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On December 4-6, Wu Wenzhang, Chairman of Shanghai SteelHome, was invited to deliver a speech at 21st Middle East Iron & Steel Conference, held by Metal Bulletin (MB) in Dubai, UAE. The speech was titled Steel De-capacity Promotes All-around Upgrading in China Steel Industry.

Major points of his speech:

       De-capacity of China steel industry has already worked: recovering in industry, enhanced concentration and improved profit.

   Manufacturing industry and infrastructure construction will be new rising drivers for China’s steel demand. China’s steel demand from property will trend down, and that from manufacturing industry will be steadily rising in the future.

   China steel industry will upgrade in the future. China’s EAF steel output will increase greatly. Development of the industry will focus on meeting domestic demand.

   Forecast for steel: crude steel output to be 855 mln tons (2018), 850 mln tons (2019) and 850 mln tons (2020); steel export to 75 mln tons (2018-2020); apparent consumption of crude steel to 790 mln tons (2018), 785 mln tons (2019) and 785 mln tons (2020). Common HR steel products price in 2018 will be 3500-4500 RMB/t (530-680 US dollars/t).

   Forecast for iron ore: China’s crude iron ore output to be 1.3 billion tons (2018), 1.25 billion tons (2019) and 1.25 billion tons (2020); imports to 1.11 billion tons (2018), 1.09 billion tons (2019) and 1.07 billion tons (2020). China’ s iron ore import price to run in the range of 60-90 dollars/t in 2018, and average price at 70 dollars/t (CIF).

During Q&A, two delegates asked Mr.Wu about China’s EAF production forecast and scrap supply/demand. As Mr.Wu introduced, China produced 42 million tons of EAF output in 2016. Currently, there is around 20 million tons of EAF capacity under construction. However, Chinese central government is strictly controlling newly-added capacity. Then EAF output in 2017 will increase 5-8 million tons, bringing the total output in the country to over 48 million tons.

About scrap supply/demand, Mr.Wu introduced that China’s integrated steelmakers currently could consume 300 kg of scrap for per ton steel produced. The scrap charge in integrated mills will increase year by year. Based on SteelHome’s prediction, China’s crude steel production will be 850 million tons in the future, including 100 million tons from EAF (which will consume 110 million tons of scrap), and 750 million tons from integrated process (200 kg conservative predict for BOF procedure). Then China’s will see a basic balance between scrap supply and demand, and we don’t expect huge export from China in the future.

Glance of the conference

Mr.Wu delivered a speech titled Steel De-capacity Promotes All-around Upgrading in China Steel Industry

Mr.Wu answered questions raised by audience

Mr.Wu and Peter F.Marcus, Managing Partner with World Steel Dynamics, discussed about the internationalization of China's derivatives

Audience exchanged the market with Mr.Wu

Ms.Dong Suqi, President Assistant with SteelHome, introduced China's Steel Supplier Director to delegates

Tina Tong, Marketing Manager with SteelHome, introduced Data, Consultancy, and Commerce Services of SteelHome

Post-event visit: SteelHome team was invited to visit Emirates Steel Industries

Post-event visit: SteelHome visited Miza Steel

Post-event visit: SteelHome visited Al Nimr Steel

 


(To contact the reporter on this story: tina.tong@steelhome.cn or 86-21-50585733)
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