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Mar.27.2019 1USD=6.7042RMB
  SteelHome >>Steel>>Market Info>>Monthly/Annual Report
 
Monthly Report on China CRC Market for February 2019

http://en.steelhome.cn [SteelHome] 2019-03-06 11:00:34

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Review and Forecast

China’s CRC market continued to weaken in February, where market participants left due to Spring Festival. However, market demand saw recovery after the Lantern Festival, which is good for the market. By February 25, 0.5mm and 1.0mm CRC in domestic markets averaged at 4,664 yuan per ton and 4,323 yuan per ton, up 49 yuan per ton and 55 yuan per ton from January 25. Steel demand declined due to the traditional weak season and Spring Festival holiday. The relative low inventory is expected to push forward steel price in the late period.

SteelHome expects that China’s CRC market price will increase with sharp fluctuation.

I CRC market prices went up with slight vibration in February 2019

The growing supply in the slack season increased the imbalance between supply and demand, which is commonplace in almost every winter. In particular, steel stocks rose sharply during the Spring Festival holiday.

Table 1: 0.5mm CRC Price Change by Region in February 2019 (Unit: yuan per tonne)

CRC

National Total

East China

South Central China

North China

Northeast China

Southwest China

Northwest China

The biggest change in February 2019

150

150

100

40

20

100

100

The smallest change in February 2019

-140

60

-140

-30

20

40

0

Average Change in February 2019

50

95

18

18

20

65

43

The biggest change in January 2019

120

10

100

90

70

120

70

The smallest change in January 2019

-160

-160

-110

-100

40

60

-120

Average Change in January 2019

-15

-64

-18

-36

57

83

-43

Table 2: 1.0mm CRC Price Change by Region in February 2019 (Unit: yuan per tonne)

CRC

National Total

East China

South Central China

North China

Northeast China

Southwest China

Northwest China

The biggest change in February 2019

120

120

100

50

20

100

100

The smallest change in February 2019

-30

60

0

-30

20

40

0

Average Change in February 2019

55

91

46

24

20

65

43

The biggest change in January 2019

120

20

0

60

70

120

70

The smallest change in January 2019

-160

-160

-110

-100

40

50

-120

Average Change in January 2019

-26

-68

-66

-42

57

75

-43

Table 3: 1.0mm CRC Price in China's Major Markets in February 2019 (Unit: yuan per tonne)

 

Shanghai

Wuxi

Guangzhou

Wuhan

Zhengzhou

Tianjin

Shenyang

Chongqing

Chengdu

Xi’an

2016/12/30

4780

4870

4830

4760

4810

4910

5000

4660

4750

5050

2017/12/29

4860

4900

5120

4840

4930

4850

5000

5180

5220

4950

2018/1/31

4650

4760

4730

4650

4820

4680

4930

4680

4750

5140

2018/2/28

4720

4760

4770

4710

4870

4820

4940

4750

4800

4830

2018/3/30

4350

4480

4450

4400

4520

4460

4750

4300

4370

4630

2018/4/28

4510

4560

4540

4430

4590

4500

4770

4420

4500

4620

2018/5/31

4540

4590

4680

4550

4670

4580

4750

4580

4620

4630

2018/6/29

4650

4700

4690

4650

4700

4600

4760

4580

4680

4650

2018/7/31

4680

4700

4770

4700

4700

4530

4760

4650

4700

4650

2018/8/31

4850

4840

4900

4850

4920

4780

4860

4880

4930

4800

2018/9/30

4790

4850

4730

4890

4900

4830

4900

4700

4780

4800

2018/10/31

4640

4710

4700

4750

4920

4770

4850

4550

4650

4780

2018/11/30

4070

4160

4190

4250

4350

4060

4200

4000

4100

4400

2018/12/29

4150

4250

4300

4310

4350

4120

4200

4050

4150

4300

2019/1/31

4170

4220

4300

4200

4240

4180

4270

4170

4210

4180

2019/2/25

4280

4330

4340

4200

4270

4230

4290

4210

4310

4210

February end 2019 VS 2017 end

-580

-570

-780

-640

-660

-620

-710

-970

-910

-740

February end 2019 VS 2018 end

130

80

40

-110

-80

110

90

160

160

-90

February end 2019 VS January end 2019

110

110

40

0

30

50

20

40

100

30

On February 25, 2019, SteelHome China Steel Price Index (SHCNS) was 96.49 points or 4,174 yuan/t, up 1.05 point or 46 yuan/t from January 25; Flats Price Index  (SHCNI-F) was 85.18 points or 4,006 yuan/t, up 1.04 point or 49 yuan/t from January 25. CRC Price Index (SHCNSI-CR) was 72.68 points (4346 yuan/t), up 1.05 point (64 yuan/t) from January 25.

Table 4: SteelHome (China) Steel Price Index in February 2019 (Unit: yuan per tonne)

 

Index

MoM growth%

Year on year growth%

Steel products-SHCNSI

96.49

4174

1.36

-7

Longs-SHCNSI-L

110.52

4018

1.14

-4.88

Flats-SHCNSI-F

85.18

4006

1.6

-8.96

CR coil-SHCNSI-CR

72.68

4417

1.2

-10.96

HR coil-SHCNSI-HR

83.8

3873

1.72

-9.63

Iron ore-SHCNOI

121.01

743

10.86

7.68

Coke-SHCNCKI

197.83

2023

-0.46

-3.03

II Forecast on China CRC Market for March 2019

1.  Cold-rolled coil output in Jan. - Mar. 2019 will go down and then head up.

Steel mills cut their finished steel products following the Spring Festival holiday and routine overhauls in winter. However, steel demand recovered after the holiday, and steel mills resumed their production lines. It is highly possible that January and February output will fall, and March will saw the increase. We estimate that China’s CRC output will be at 11.7 million tons in January and February and 6.9 million tons in March 2019.

Table 5: China CRC Output Forecast for January- March 2019

 

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.- Feb.(E)

Mar.(E)

Output

704.31

688.59

716.89

713.14

704.81

1170

690

2. CRC Inventory is expected to head up and then go down in March

Although steel output fell in February due to the steel mills’ routine overhaul, market inventory rallied significantly for three consecutive weeks with the Spring Festival Holiday and traditional slack season.

According to SteelHome statistics, China’s CRC market inventory was 1.83 million tons on February 21, up 358,600 tons from January 31. In March, steel output will recover as well as the steel demand. It is estimated that CRC inventory will climb to a peak in middle March. We expect that CRC market inventory will increase by 100,000 tons on March 21 from February 21.

3. Steel Mills will raise their CRC sales price slightly in March

In February, major CRC manufacturers lifted their CRC sales price. It is expected that steel mills will lift their CRC factory price by 100 yuan/t in March 2019.

Table 6: Chinese Steelmakers' CRC Price Adjustment in February 2019 (Unit: yuan per ton)

Steelmaker

Product

Size

Spec

Accumulative price change

Price after adjustment

Liuzhou Steel

CRC

1.0mm*1250*C

SPCC

130

4720

Lianyuan Steel

CRC

1.0mm*1250*C

SPCC

50

4615

Baosteel

CRC

1.0mm*1250*C

SPCC

58

5435.76

Ansteel

CRC

1.0mm*1250*C

SPCC

0

5979.8

Benxi Steel

CRC

1.0mm*1250*C

DC01

58

6090

Shougang

CRC

1.0mm*1250*C

SPCC

116

5916

III Downstream Industry

Steel plate demand is expected to increase due to the growing demand from downstream manufacturing industry. Demand from auto industry, house appliance industry and metal hardware industry will increase market activity.

IV Conclusion

In summary, it’s inevitable that steel consumption will increase in March following the growing demand. The supply and demand of CRC will decide the price. SteelHome expects that China’s CRC market price will increase with sharp fluctuation.


(To contact the reporter on this story: leo.ji@steelhome.cn or 86-555-2238932)
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