As per statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 4.512 million tons of steel products in February 2019, down 335,000 tons or 6.9% year on year; imports in February were 819,000 tons, down 208,000 tons or 20.3% year on year. The cumulative steel exports for January and February 2019 were 10.70 million tons, increasing 1.219 million tons or 12.9% year on year. The cumulative steel imports for January and February 2019 were 1.998 million tons, decreasing 220,000 tons or 9.9% year on year.

Table 1: China steel imports and exports in February 2019

Table 2: China steel imports and exports in January and February 2019

China’s steel market price mainly increased this week. As of March 8, SteelHome China Steel Price Index (SHCNSI) closed at 97.23 points (4,206 yuan), up 0.78 point from the previous week.

Overview

China’s steel market price continued to increase amid vibration this week. The inventory of five major steel products all declined, reflecting growing demand from downstream industry under the current high operating rate.

On March 5, the second meeting of the National People's Congress was held. Premier Li Keqiang released multiple positives in the government work report: positive fiscal policy to increase deficit rate, local special bond to provide support for key projects, tax reduction from 16% to 13% will further reduce the manufacturing tax burden.

Steel consumption will continue to increase following the key infrastructure projects construction. Environmental protection in Hebei Tangshan city, Hebei Wu’an city and Shanxi Linfen city will restrict local production.

SteelHome expects that China’s steel market price will continue to increase in the following week.

HR/CR Plate/Coil

HRC

China’s HRC market price headed up and then went down this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the average price of 2.75mm Q235 HRC in 28 Chinese markets came to 3,986 yuan/t, up 6 yuan/t from the previous week; 5.75mm Q235 HRC was 3,885 yuan/t, up 7 yuan/t from the previous week.

According to SteelHome survey, China’s HRC inventory in major markets was 3.1585 million tons, down 2.1% from last survey. It was learned that domestic HRC producers were in normal production. Trading activities were flat with stable market sentiment.

SteelHome predicts that China’s HRC market price will rise slightly in the following week.

CRC

China’s CRC market price went up slightly this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the average price of 0.5mm CRC and 1.0mm SPCC CRC in 28 major Chinese steel markets in the week were 4,726 yuan/t and 4445 yuan/t, up 36 yuan/t and up 33 yuan/t from the previous week.

Now, steel consumption is less than expected. Market inventory remains relatively stable and some sellers have pressures on sales.

SteelHome predicts that China’s CRC market price will mainly vibrate next week.

Construction Steel

China’s construction steel market price rose this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the average price of 8mm HPB300 high speed wire rod and 18-25mm HRB400 rebar at 28 markets was 4,108 yuan/t and 3,989 yuan/t, up 30 yuan/t and up 24 yuan/t respectively from last week.

According to preliminary survey by SteelHome to 33 markets and ports, rebar inventory was 9.0417 million tons, down 0.3% from previous survey; wire rod inventory amounted to 3.5946 million tons, down 3.7% over last survey.

Downstream industry demand is expected to grow following construction of infrastructure projects. Environmental protection measures in Wu’an city and Tangshan city will restriction local production.  

SteelHome expects that China’s construction steel price will continue growing in the following week.

Medium Plate

China’s medium plate price went up slightly this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the 8mm Q235 medium plate prices averaged 4,323 yuan/t and 20mm Q235 medium plate was 4,017 yuan/t, up 10 yuan/t and up 11 yuan/t from the last week.

According to SteelHome survey, China’s medium plate inventory in domestic major markets was 1.1006 million tons, down 4.9% from last survey. Demand from downstream machinery industry and infrastructure projects increased, and steel mills received enough orders.

SteelHome predicts that China’s medium plate market price will continue to go up in the following week.

Plating/ Color Coating Steel

China’s color coating steel price remained stable, and plating steel rose steadily this week.

By 8 March (Friday), average price of 0.5mm and 1.0mm galvanized sheet of 18 markets was 4,887 yuan/t and 4,623 yuan/t, up 26 yuan/t and up 27 yuan/t from the last week.

The price of 0.326mm coated sheet was 6,197 yuan/t and 0.476mm coated sheet was 6,031 yuan/t, both up 8 yuan/t from previous week.

China CRC and HRC price mainly increased after the Spring Festival. It is highly possible that steel mills will raise their April factory price for plating and color coating steel.

SteelHome predicts that China’s plating and color coating steel price will rise slightly next week.

Strip

China’s hot-rolled strip market price came up this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the average price of 2.75mm * 235mm and 5.5mm * 685mm strip of 12 Chinese markets was 3,855 yuan/t and 3857 yuan/t, up 15 yuan/t and up 14 yuan/t from the last week.

China’s strip steel price went down and then headed up. North China began to restrict production from 7 March (Thursday), which had a big influence on downstream galvanized and cold-rolled strip enterprises. What’s more, rolling mills in Tangshan city were required to stop production, lifting section steel price due to the short supply. It was learned that strip stocks in South China hiked amid the weak demand.

SteelHome predicts that China’s strip market price will fluctuate next week.

Sections

China’s section steel price rose steadily this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the average price of 5# Q235 angle, 16# Q235 channel and 25# Q235 I beam in 28 Chinese marketplaces was 4,176 yuan/t, 4,124 yuan/t and 4,158 yuan/t, up 26 yuan/t, up 25 yuan/t and up 23 yuan/t respectively compared to the previous week.

The average price of Q235 200* 200mm, 400* 200mm and 400* 400mm H beam was 3,890 yuan/t, 3,919 yuan/t and 4,053 yuan/t, up 24 yuan/t, up 24 yuan/t and up 19 yuan/t respectively from the previous week.

SteelHome predicts that China’s section steel market price will continue to increase in the following week.

Structural Steel

China’s structural steel price remained stable this week.

By 8 March (Friday), the average price of 50mm 45# carbon structural steel and 40Cr alloy structural steel of 16 Chinese markets was 4,176 yuan/t and 4,401 yuan/t, up 16 yuan/t and up 21 yuan/t from the last survey.

Steel mills will announce their price policies for mid-March, where the factory price is expected to remain stable. Now, demand from downstream industry hasn’t recovered as expected, which restricts structural steel price to grow. 

SteelHome predicts that China’s structural steel market price will vibrate slightly next week.

Table 3: Chinese Steel Price during March 1-8, 2019 (price in yuan/t)

 Source: SteelHome

Table 4: China Steel Export Price on 8 March 2019

Price in US dollars per ton, FOB

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