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SteelHome
released the annual reports of major steel and raw materials products. The
subscription of each report is 1000 US dollars. Please have a look at the
SUMMARY and OUTLINE below and contact Tina at tina.tong@steelhome.cn or
0086) 21 50585733 if you are interested in subscription.
Summary
In
2018, China iron ore market saw narrowed fluctuation in price, mainly
running in the range of 60-80 dollars per ton (CIF, China). It was a
V-shaped performance in the year, with the average price falling by 2
dollars to 69 dollars per ton (CIF, China).
With
the impact of Vale’s tailings dam recapture, iron ore supply in 2019 may
decrease by 57.8-59.8 million tons. Global pig iron production increase
will add 31.26 million tons of iron ore. Then the supply shortage of iron
ore in 2019 globally will be 89.06-91.06 million tons.
Iron
ore price in 2019 is expected to rise. 62% iron ore, delivered to China,
may run in the range of 70-90 dollars per ton (CIF, China). The peak may
hit 100 dollars per ton even higher. The average price in 2019 will be at
least 10 dollars per ton higher than 2018.
Outline
I
2018 Review
1.1
Iron ore market price
fluctuation narrowed down in 2018
1.2
Brazilian ore and lump
(environmental-friendly ore) were favored by steelmakers in 2018
1.3
Sharp RMB depreciation in
2018 raised iron ore price bottom
1.4
Imported iron ore
inventory at Chinese ports in H1 2018 sustained, while softened in H2
1.5
Iron ore futures contract
ore traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange diverged in 2018
1.6
Iron ore supply/demand
conflict in 2018 eased
1.7
Expansion at non-China
miners in 2018 decelerated
II
2019 Forecast
2.1
Production updates of non-China miners in 2019
2.2
Vale’s tailings dam collapse’ impact on iron ore shipments gradually
works
2.3
Global iron ore supply shortage in 2019 in the range of 89.06-91.06
million tons
2.4
Iron ore price spread between different products narrows quickly in 2019
Conclusion:
Average import price of iron ore, delivered to China, in 2019 will be 10
dollars higher than 2018.
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