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15th Steel Development Strategy Conference, host by
SteelHome, was successfully held in International Convention Center
during April 12-14, 2019. Around 1000 delegates from governments,
associations, steel mills, miners, traders, research institutes attended
the one of biggest events in China steel industry.
8th International Raw Materials Supply Chain Summit, 9th Coal
& Coke Development Strategy Conference, 7h China Commodities E-Commerce
Summit and 2019 SteelHome Spring Report were simultaneously held.
On the morning of April 13, Zhu Baoliang, the chief economist of the
National Information Center, the researcher of the economic forecasting
department, and the special allowance expert of the State Council, made
a report on "The current economic situation and the economic policy of
2019." at the meeting.
Zhu Baoliang, Deputy Director with Economic Forecasting Department,
State Information Center
Summary of speeches
In the 19th National Congress of 2017, China's economy has shifted from
a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage: the
supply-side structural reform is the main line; from 2018 to 2020, the
three major battles of “preventing risks, precise poverty alleviation,
and pollution prevention” have been laid.
In 2018, the key tasks of supply-side structural reforms were “breaking,
establishing, and reducing”, breaking zombie enterprises, establishing
short-boards, and reducing costs; financial supervision and monetary
tightening; in July 2018, stabilizing employment, finance, foreign
trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations.
Current economic situation
1. The economic growth rate has stabilized and declined.
2. The decline in domestic demand: the overall growth rate of investment
has slowed down moderately; consumption demand has stabilized with
slight drop; government spending has grown slowly; inventory has risen
slightly.
3. External demand begins to weaken
4. Progress has been made in improving structure, quality and
efficiency.
5. Financial risks are released
Prominent contradictions and problems
in economic development
1. Difficulties in business operations: The confidence of private
enterprises is not high, and the willingness to invest is not strong;
the reform of state-owned enterprises is slow, and the withdrawal of
zombie enterprises is difficult.
2. Real estate prices are too high to crowd out household consumption
3. Local government debt disposal has led to a decline in infrastructure
investment
4. Financial risks accumulate and financial risks are constantly exposed
5. The coordination of macroeconomic regulation and control policies is
not strong
Three scenarios in the short-term
impact of the trade war: optimistic scenarios;
baseline scenarios; pessimistic
scenarios
The macroeconomic policies determined
by the two sessions in 2019:
1. Macroeconomic policy strengthens countercyclical regulation
3. Continue to fight three major attacks
4. Accelerate economic system reform
5. Form a new pattern of comprehensive opening
Economic forecast:
1. In 2019, GDP will increase by about 6.3%, and in 2020, it will
increase by about 6%.
2. The price increase has declined, and the CPI is expected to rise by
about 2%. The industrial ex-factory price is around 0.5%. |
