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15th Steel Development Strategy Conference, host by
SteelHome, was successfully held in International Convention Center
during April 12-14, 2019. Around 1000 delegates from governments,
associations, steel mills, miners, traders, research institutes attended
the one of biggest events in China steel industry.
8th International Raw Materials Supply Chain Summit, 9th Coal
& Coke Development Strategy Conference, 7th China Commodities E-Commerce
Summit and 2019 SteelHome Spring Report were simultaneously held.
On the morning of April 14, Cui Pijiang, Chairman, China Coking Industry
Association, made a speech on “Suggestions on the Development of Coking
Industry under New Environmental Situation”.
Cui Pijiang, Chairman, China Coking Industry Association
Summary of speech
Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and
China's economy has turned to a stage of high-quality development. The
above puts forward new and higher requirements on how China's coking
industry adapts to the new situation, wins the tough battle of
environmental protection and grasps the development opportunities in the
process of reform and change.
I Basic understanding of the current coke market
At present, China's coke market can be summarized as follows: production
maintains growth, overall balance of supply and demand, large price
fluctuation and obvious decline in benefits. The positive changes in the
coking situation over the past three years have mainly benefited from:
First, China’s macro-economy has undergone several years of policy
adjustments, supply-side structural reforms have shown good results;
Second, economic benefits of steel industry improved obviously by
eliminating overcapacity, banning substandard steel and illegal
capacity.Third, the reduction of enterprises’ inventory, users’
inventory, social inventory and the environmentally-friendly governance
mechanism, which has transformed the contradiction between supply and
demand, which has been serious for many years, into a state of basic
balance between supply and demand. Fourth, all enterprises deepened
reform and opening up, actively adapted to changes in the economic
situation, took actions to reduce costs and make up the short board. The
hard work and internal strength continued to enhance the comprehensive
competitiveness of the enterprise market. Fifth, China's economic
development has a relatively stable social and political environment,
which is a key factor.
II Factors in the development trend of the coke market in 2019
1. Positive factors
The international environment is generally favorable; The fundamentals
of China's economic stability have not changed; The “Belt and Road
Initiative” is also an opportunity for China's economic development; The
coal and coke industry will not decline sharply in the short term.
2. Negative factors
The Sino-US trade friction has had a certain impact on the Chinese
economy, but it can promote China's further reform and opening up; The
downward pressure on China's economy is more obvious, and the
differentiation of enterprises will continue to evolve; Environmental
management and logistics transportation restrictions will have a
fluctuating impact on the balance of supply and demand in the coal and
coke market; The continuous increase in the consumption of scrap steel
in EAF and converter is bound to reduce the demand for coke.
Based on the above factors, the supply and demand situation of China's
coking market in 2019 will be in a basic balance on the whole. Whether
the output and operating benefit of coking enterprises are good or not
is still determined by steel production and operating benefit. It is
predicted that the output of coke in 2019 will be flat or slightly lower
than that in 2018. |
