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Summary

Metallurgical coke price in 2018 generally ran at high level, with average price rising by 300 yuan per ton then 2017, added with tight balance in supply/demand.

In 2018, metallurgical coke supply in BFs totaled 311 million tons, and the production was 308 million tons.

After SteelHome survey, metallurgical coke capacity addition in 2019 will be 12.70 million tons; newly-added hot metal output from blast furnaces will be 30 million tons. Then metallurgical coke supply/demand in 2019 will be eased compared to 2018.

The major factors impacting 2019 price will be environmental protection and de-capacity.

SteelHome predicts that metallurgical coke price in the second and third quarters in 2019 will be moving up, with average price in the year slightly lower than 2018.

Take Shanxi province’s Linfen city for instance, the grade I metcoke price will be running in the range of 1700-2500 yuan per ton in 2019.

Metallurgical coal market in 2018 was relatively strong. Average price of coking coal and PCI was up by 85-120 yuan per ton over 2017.

Domestic coking coal supply was 435 million tons, down 2.4 percent on year.

In 2019, the projected coal output addition will be around 100 million tons, however coking coal supply will remain tight.

In Q2 and Q3, Chinese coking coal price will go up first and then head down, with the average price in 2019 almost flat with 2018. Low sulphur premium coking coal price will be running in the range of 1450-1750 yuan per ton. PCI priced quoted by big-scaled mines will remain stable, while smaller ones will fluctuate. Imported PCI alongside Yangtze River will be 1000-1150 yuan per ton.

Outline

I 2018 Review

1.1  Metallurgical coke price in 2018 fell first and then moved up

1.2  Metallurgical coke supply/demand in 2018 was in tight balance

1.3  Chinese metallurgical coal market performed strong in 2018

1.4  Chinese coking coal supply decreased in 2018

II 2019 Forecast

2.1 Newly-added metallurgical coke capacity in 2019 to be around 12.7 million tons

2.2 BF metallurgical coke production in 2019 will rise to 341 million tons

2.3 BF metallurgical coke demand in 2019 will rise to 320 million tons

2.4 Coke export in 2019 is expected to break 10 million tons

2.5 Price forecast for 2019 Chinese coke market

2.6 Coal supply in 2019 to loosen, while coking coal to be structurally tight