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Summary

In the first half of 2018, China HRC market price went down and then headed up. The performance of the second half of the year obviously weakened, especially in November where HRC market price slumped. In the first quarter of 2019, China HRC market rose amid vibration.

From the perspective of the late market, the acceleration of infrastructure investment will drive the increase of hot rolled coil demand. In the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, with the new capacity putting into production, HRC market supply will be under pressure.

It is predicted that China’s hot rolled coil market price will rise amid vibration in the second quarter of 2019. In the third quarter, the price will fluctuate overall. In the fourth quarter, the price will face greater downward pressure. It is expected that HRC market price will be run within 3,500-4,400 yuan per tonne in 2019. Take Shanghai market as an example, we estimate the annual average price of hot rolled coil is around 3,900 yuan per tonne, which is about 200 yuan per tonne lower than that in 2018.

Outline

I 2018 Review

1.1 HRC price change in major markets since 2018

1.2 HRC market inventory and mills’ inventory since 2018

1.3 HRC output, supply, import and export during 2012-2018

1.4 HRC production capacity distribution in 2018

II 2019 Forecast

2.1 Political factors which affect HRC demand

2.2 Political factors which affect HRC production

2.3 HRC output, supply, import and export forecast

2.4 Downstream industry demand forecast