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Summary

In 2018, China’s construction steel output grew rapidly, supply and demand were in tight balance, and the market price fluctuated significantly. The economic benefits of construction steel mills reached a record high.

Forecast for Construction Steel in 2019

First, on the supply side, there are uncertainties in the enforcement of cracking down on illegal production capacity, environmental protection and production limitation, and the inspection intensity after the implementation of the new rebar standard. It is expected that domestic construction steel production capacity and output will continue to increase, market supply will be under pressure, and exports will increase.

Second, in terms of demand, China's real estate development and investment growth is expected to face downward pressure in the second half of 2019. Infrastructure investment will not be strongly stimulated, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment will pick up in 2019.

Third, it is expected that China's construction steel price will move down, average market price in 2019 will be lower than 2018.

It is expected that the price will rise amid vibration in the second quarter, then vibrate in the third quarter, and then face certain downward pressure in the fourth quarter. The annual average price of 20mm III rebar in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing markets is expected to be around 3,950 yuan per tonne, 4,200 yuan per tonne and 3,850 yuan per tonne respectively. Taking Shanghai market as an example, construction steel price will be run within 3,600-4,400 yuan per tonne.

Outline

I 2018 Review

1.1 Characteristics of construction steel market during 2018-2019

1.2 Phased Analysis of construction steel price change

1.3 Analysis on market supply of construction steel in 2019

II 2019 Forecast

2.1 Construction steel production capacity distribution in 2019

2.2 Analysis of factors affecting output in 2019

2.3 Analysis of factors affecting demand in 2019

2.4 Construction steel output, import & export and supply forecast in 2019

2.5 Construction steel price trend forecast in 2019