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15th Steel Development Strategy Conference, host by
SteelHome, was successfully held in International Convention Center
during April 12-14, 2019. Around 1000 delegates from governments,
associations, steel mills, miners, traders, research institutes attended
the one of biggest events in China steel industry.
8th International Raw Materials Supply Chain Summit, 9th Coal
& Coke Development Strategy Conference, 7th China Commodities E-Commerce
Summit and 2019 SteelHome Spring Report were simultaneously held.
On the morning of April 14, Han Weidong, vice president of Tianjin Youfa
Steel Pipe Group, made a speech on “2019 Steel Market Price Trend
Forecast”
Han Weidong, Vice President, Tianjin Youfa Steel Pipe Group
I Macro-environment and Industry
Situation in 2018
Economic downward pressure; the Federal Reserve raises interest rates,
trade wars; high output, high profits, low inventories.
II Forecast in 2019
1.
Macro-environment: all aspects are stimulating the economy and opening
up to both inside and outside; In March, manufacturing PMI returned to
above 50 percent.
2.
Industry: market analysis can not only focus on supply, but also with
demand, demand increase can offset the impact of some of the increase in
production.
3. 2019 price trend forecast: the average price of the strip in 2018 was
3,850 yuan per tonne, the running range was about 100 yuan per tonne,
the average price of 2019 is about 3,700 yuan per tonne, the price will
fluctuate throughout the year, the production limitation in autumn and
winter season will still push up the steel price, but lower than the
peak of 2018.
4. With the transformation and upgrading,
Youfa Steel Pipe Group's
profit grew by several hundred million last year, up 40 percent so far
in 2019 compared with the same period last year. The opportunity for
profit is not in the market, but in the improvement of its own sectors. |
