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On June 17-19, 2019, Eastern time, USA, Steel
Success Strategies 2019 is held jointly by World Steel Dynamics (WSD) and
American Metal Market (Fastmarkets AMM) in New York. Mr. Wu Wenzhang, Chairmen
& President of Shanghai SteelHome Website, GM of China Commodity Website was
invited to attend the conference and delivered a speech titled as Chinese
Steel Industry Enters High-Quality Development Stage & Analysis and Forecast
on 2019-2020 China Steel Market.
Mr. Wu’s conclusion in the speech are (VIP
subscribers of SteelHome can contact Tina for full presentation):
1.
Chinese economy enters high quality development stage. Chinese economic growth
will step down, be 6.0-6.5% in 2020-2035 and finally stabilize at around 4-5% in
2050.
2.
Chinese steel demand will go down. Chinese crude steel production and
consumption is expected to be 790 mln tons and 700 mln tons by 2035, and
stabilize at 670 mln tons and 580 mln tons by 2050.
3.
Chinese steel industry will focus on domestic market development. Steel export
share to production will keep in the range of 10-15% (the share was 6.3% in
2018). Upgrading in equipment manufacturing and development in emerging
industries will become driving forces for Chinese steel industry.
4.
Chinese steel industry will accelerate M&As. China in three years will see
steel group with over 100 mln tons of production.
5.
Chinese steel industry will further optimize layout, and steel capacity will
gradually gather in coastal areas of East China.
6.
Chinese steel industry will realize super-low emission and green development.
EAF-based steel production in the future will account for 20-30% of total
volume.
7.
Chinese crude steel production to be 970 mln tons in 2019 and 960 mln tons in
2019 and 2020; steel export to be around 75 mln tons; crude steel apparent to be
910 mln tons in 2019 and 900 mln tons in 2020.
8.
Chinese crude iron ore production to be 800 mln tons in 2019 and 2020; iron ore
import to sustain 1.08 bln tons.
9.
Chinese common HR steel products will be mostly running in the range of
3500-4200 RMB per ton (508-610 USD/t); average iron ore import price (62%),
delivered to China, will be around 85 US dollars per ton (CIF, China).
Q&As
Q1: Rebar futures contract traded on Shaghai
Futures Exchange has huge liquidity, but why there is big price difference
between rebar futures price and spot price? Forward contracts even have bigger
discount than spot one?
A1: China has lofty rebar
capacity; product brands among steelmakers are extremely different; on the
coming of month for delivery, futures price will approach spot one.
Q2: what is the impact of China-USA trade talk
against China steel industry?
A2: There is slight impact
on China steel industry if we only consider the tariff addition on steel
products, as US has already levied high anti-dumping tariff and
anti-countervailing tariff against China’s steel exporting shipments. However,
Chinese steelmakers pay high attention on the movement in China-USA talks,
especially on the change of policy on machinery equipments products originated
from China.
During the sidelines of the
conference, SteelHome team introduced new products to delegates: SteelHome
Database (2019 version), SteelHome APP, Chinese Steelmakers Distribution Map
(2019 version), Chinese Steel Supplier Directory (2019 version) etc.
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