August 21, by the Dalian Commodity Exchange in Shenzhen, "2019 China Coal Char Industry Conference" at the same time, CITIC Futures Research Department black building materials group coal charring researcher Xin Xiuling believes that the increase in coking coal imports, facing policy risks in the second half of the year. The amount of coke coal imported in the first half of the year was relatively large, and the supplement to the supply was strengthened. But at the same time, the import also faces the risk of certain import policy change, the customs clearance time of seaborne coal is long, Mongolian coal also faces the reduction under the policy risk.
Data show that from January to June 2019, China's imports of coking coal from Australia reached 14.51 million tons, an increase of 16.8 percent over the same period last year, and 16.69 million tons of coking coal from Mongolia, an increase of 30.76 percent over the same period last year.
The reporter found that in the near future, environmental protection and production restrictions have been strengthened, and the marginal demand for coking coal has weakened. The capacity utilization rate of coke oven is maintained at about 80%, and the demand for coke coal is relatively strong. And environmental protection and removal of production capacity will run through the coking industry throughout the second half of the year, the marginal demand for coking coal is weak. Under the condition of high inventory and profit contraction, the demand-side coking enterprises will give priority to the consumption of inventory.
For the future trend of coking coal prices, Xin Xiuling believes that coking coal with the rise and fall of the industrial chain, supply-side support is stronger. The domestic output changed little, the customs clearance time of seaborne coal import was long, and the customs clearance vehicles of Mongolian coal decreased. From the point of view of demand, although the coking production limit is strengthened regionally, the demand for coking coal is relatively stable. The price of each variety is different, the price of domestic main coke coal rises, the main coke of low sulfur is tight, the price of seaborne coal continues to be depressed, and the price of some coking coal is still under pressure. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand of coking coal is small, mainly stable.
Participants in the enterprise view, coking coal prices are expected to gradually change from supply-led to demand-led, due to the strengthening of environmental protection and production restrictions, the operating rate of the black industrial chain will decline as a whole, in addition, with the weakening of terminal demand, it will gradually be transmitted to upstream coking coal. Although the demand for coking coal is weak, there is downward pressure on coking coal, but under the background of strict domestic safety supervision and the founding of Daqing in the past 70 years, the supply of coking coal will also be affected to a certain extent, which will support the price of coking coal.
Source: Futures daily newspaper |
