The Canada Energy
Regulator (CER) released its long-term energy outlook Tuesday, that
explores how new technologies, infrastructure developments and climate
policy will impact Canadian energy consumption and production trends over
the next 20 years.
Canada’s Energy
Future 2019: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 shows that
while domestic fossil fuel consumption growth slows, crude oil and natural
gas production continues to increase. The potential for LNG exports is an
important driver of natural gas production while oil production growth is
led by new phases of existing in-situ projects, the report revealed.
The report’s
baseline outlook relies on a current economic outlook, a moderate view of
energy prices, and climate and energy policies currently in place.
Canadian oil
pricing and production trends will rely heavily on the availability of
export pipeline and rail capacity. If approved pipeline projects (Trans
Mountain, Keystone XL, Line 3) proceed as announced, along with continued
volumes of crude by rail, there will be sufficient takeaway
capacity to accommodate production growth over the next 20 years,
according to CER.
Regional
differences across the country continue to drive the diversity of Canada’s electricity
production. Natural gas and renewables will be used to displace coal-fired
electricity generation, which in turn will help lower Canada’s electricity
emissions over the next 20 years, the report states. Installed
capacity of wind and solar nearly doubles over the outlook period, but
hydro will remain the dominant source of renewable electricity energy in
2040.
Energy
outlook forecasts:
Energy
use per person in Canada declines over 15% by 2040.
By 2040, the share
of non-emitting electricity generation in Canada increases to 83% from
81%.
Wind and solar
forms nearly 10% of Canada’s electricity generation by 2040.
From 2018 to 2040,
crude oil production grows by nearly 50%, to around seven million barrels
per day.
The outlook is
based on climate and energy policies that are currently in place or
sufficiently detailed and are a key reason why the growth in Canadian
fossil fuel use is limited.
Natural gas
production increases by about 30%, to over 20 billion cubic feet per day
over the next 20 years.
Natural gas and
renewables will displace coal-fired generation in Alberta, Saskatchewan
and Nova Scotia. Canada’s large base of hydro power will continue to
produce electricity in British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec and Newfoundland
and Labrador.
By 2040, total
fossil fuel use grows less than 1% from current levels, but growth varies
significantly across the different fuel types. Natural gas use, the least
GHG-intensive fossil fuel, increases by 18%. Oil product use declines by
7%, while coal use declines by nearly 75%.
Source:
Mining
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