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Apr.24.2024 1USD=7.1059RMB
  SteelHome >>Raw Material>>Market Info>>Special Studies
 
Vale Announces 2020 Q1 Iron Ore Production Report

https://en.steelhome.com [SteelHome] 2020-04-20 16:49:12

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Vale's iron ore fines production totalled 59.6 Mt, therefore below the production guidance of 63-68 Mt for 1Q20. The main causes for that result are: (i) losses of 4.5 Mt in the Northern System from (a) unscheduled maintenance of the long distance conveyor belt at S11D; (b) concentrated, stronger-than-usual weather-related conditions, especially in March; (c) operational restrictions at the Northern Range connected to the postponement of the start-up of the new Morro 1 mining section; (ii) losses of 1.8 Mt from lower third-party purchases, due to reduced availability caused by the heavy rains in the southeast of Brazil; and (iii) losses of 2.1 Mt from a number of operational issues in the Southeastern System, mainly in the Itabira Complex.

Sales volumes of iron ore fines and pellets reached 59.0 Mt, in line with production in 1Q20. The share of premium products totaled 87% in 1Q20. Iron ore fines and pellets quality premiums reached US$ 5.2/t in 1Q20, US$ 1.2/t lower than 4Q19, mainly due to absence of dividends received and lower pellet premiums, which were partially offset by higher iron ore fines premiums.

Vale revised its guidance for iron ore fines production in 2020 to 310-330 Mt from 340- 355 Mt and its pellet production guidance to 35-40 Mt from 44 Mt. The main reasons for this revision are: (i) the 1Q20 production miss;(ii) delays in the resumption of halted operations, such as Timbopeba and Fabrica, as the COVID-19 pandemic has been delaying inspections, assessments and authorization processes; (iii) delays in implementation of alternatives for the disposal of tailings by the Brucutu plant, which should not be completed until the end of 2Q20; and (iv) additional impacts related to the pandemic, associated with the risk of increasing absenteeism when running different sensitivity scenarios. The chart below illustrates the change in Vale's iron ore fines production guidance for the year:

Vale's sales volume in 2020 may change according to market conditions and Vale's strategy of margin over volume, prioritizing blended products in its portfolio and the replenishment of inventories in 2020 as appropriate.

T1 Production Summary

000' metric tons

1Q20

4Q19

1Q19

% change

1Q20/4Q19

1Q20/1Q19

Iron ore¹

59,605

78,344

72,870

-23.9%

-18.2%

Pellets

6,926

9,415

12,174

-26.4%

-43.1%

1. Including third party purchases, run-of-mine and feed for pelletizing plants.

T2 Sales summary

000' metric tons

1Q20

4Q19

1Q19

% change

1Q20/4Q19

1Q20/1Q19

Iron ore¹

51,656

77,907

55,416

-33.7%

-6.8%

Pellets

7,311

10,966

12,314

-33.3%

-40.6%

1. Including third party purchases, run-of-mine and feed for pelletizing plants.

T3 Iron Ore Production

000' metric tons

1Q20

4Q19

1Q19

% change

1Q20/4Q19

1Q20/1Q19

Northern System

39,900

50,729

41,015

-21.3%

-2.7%

Northern and Eastern Ranges

21,480

31,438

23,029

-31.7%

-6.7%

S11D

18,420

19,291

17,986

-4.5%

2.4%

Southeastern System

11,789

17,019

19,578

-30.7%

-39.8%

Itabira (Cau¨o, Conceição

6,007

8,067

9,292

-25.5%

-35.4%

Minas Centrais (Brucutu

3,649

6,600

5,191

-44.7%

-29.7%

Mariana (Alegria,

2,133

2,352

5,095

-9.3%

-58.1%

Southern System

7,356

9,980

11,776

-26.3%

-37.5%

Paraopeba (Mutuca,

3,648

4,997

6,795

-27.0%

-46.3%

Vargem Grande (Vargem

3,708

4,983

4,980

-25.6%

-25.5%

Midwestern System

559

616

501

-9.3%

11.6%

Corumb¨¢

559

616

501

-9.3%

11.6%

IRON ORE PRODUCTION

59,605

78,344

72,870

-23.9%

-18.2%

IRON ORE SALES

51,656

77,907

55,416

-33.7%

-6.8%

IRON ORE AND PELLETS SALES

58,967

88,873

67,730

-33.7%

-12.9%

Resumption Plan

The plan for resuming operations in Timbopeba, F¨¢brica and Vargem Grande complexes is ongoing, as discussions with the National Mining Agency (ANM), the Public Prosecutor's Office of the Minas Gerais State (MPMG) and the external audit f irms are in progress, unfortunately at a slower-than-anticipated pace given the COVID-19 pandemic.

The resumption of production in Timbopeba, expected to occur in 1Q20, was postponed to 2Q20. Vale received the necessary authorization from the external auditors hired by the public prosecutors to restart the site operations, starting with dry processing activities. Maintenance works are ongoing for a safe return to operations. Wet processing activities are likely to be resumed in 4Q20, after the construction of a pipeline is complete; nonetheless, alternatives to anticipate wet processing are under evaluation.

The dry processing operation at F¨¢brica, initially expected for 2Q20, is now likely to resume in 3Q20. Vibration trigger tests are necessary to certify the absence of impacts on the site's structures, which depend on approval by the ANM and the auditors hired by the public prosecutors. Wet processing operations with tailings disposal at Forquilha V dam are now expected in 4Q20, instead of previous estimate for 3Q20.

Vargem Grande pellet plant operations are expected to resume in 3Q20, as trigger tests related to the pellet plant had their start approved by the auditors hired by the public prosecutors, now pending the approval by ANM. The pellet feed will be sourced from the site's beneficiation plant, therefore requiring tailings disposal at the Maravil has I dam and Cianita waste dump until the start-up of the Maravil has III dam, expected for 4Q20. The resumption of the beneficiation plant and its economic mining plan depends on approval by the ANM.

The Brucutu plant, which used to dispose of tailings in the Norte/Laranjeiras dam will continue to operate at around 40% of its capacity through wet processing and tailings filtration. Short- term alternatives for tailings disposal, such as the optimized use of the Sul dam, are being tested by geotechnical and operational teams and may increase Brucutu plant's processing capacityto 80%. If such alternatives for tailings disposal or the reclassification of the emergency level for Norte/Laranjeiras dam are not accomplished, there will likely be an impact on the 2020 annual iron ore fines production volume as illustrated in the chart previously presented.

Northern System

The Northern System, which is comprised of the Caraj¨¢s and S11D mines, produced 39.9 Mt in 1Q20, 4.5 Mt lower than the forecast in the 1Q20 guidance and 1.1 Mt lower than in 1Q19, mainly due to:

(i) unscheduled maintenance of the long-distance conveyor belt at S11D, due to a global maintenance program after an accident with the conveyor belt in its coal operations in Mozambique which led Vale to review all its conveyor belts around the world;

(ii) stronger than usual weather-related conditions, very concentrated in a few days of March in the Northern System; this resulted in increased moisture levels in Vale's ores, which required longer drying periods at port stockyards and thus impaired storage capacity in the port, impacting rail transportation from mine to port and forcing down mine production due to lack of storage capacity at the mine;

(iii) operational restrictions at Northern Range connected to the postponement of the start-up of the new Morro 1 mining section, from 4Q20 to 2Q21, following the delay in obtaining the environmental license (finally granted in December 2019)

Those negative effects were partially offset by a gradual increase of S11D production that is expected to produce close to 90 Mt in 2020.

The Northern Range is expected to face operating restrictions connected to the Morro 1 mining section postponement (item iii above), with an impact of around 3 Mt in 2Q20. Vale expects to produce 113 Mt from the Northern Range in 2020.

Uncertainties arising from the COVID-19 pandemic may affect production expectations. Vale remains vigilant and monitoring closely any indication of acceleration of contagion levels in the region. The most important thing is to guarantee the safety of workers and communities surrounding its operations. Vale has been conservatively adopting measures such as operating with a minimum contingent of workers at production sites, removal of risk groups from operations and removal of workers that potentially had contact with suspected cases of infection. Such measures allow a less vulnerable environment for the absenteeism risk.

Southeastern System

The Southeastern System, which encompasses the Itabira, Minas Centraisand Mariana mining hubs, produced 11.8 Mt in 1Q20, 5.2 Mt and 7.8 Mt lower than in 4Q19 and 1Q19, respectively, mainly as a result of the suspension of tailings disposal at the Norte/Laranjeiras and Itabiruçu dams, impacting the Brucutu and Conceição sites, respectively, as well as unscheduled maintenances at the Cau¨o site and the stoppage of Fazendão mine at the end of February due to depletion of the licensed mining area.

The Conceição plants are using tailings filtration and disposal at the Onça and Periquito pits as a short-term alternative for the Itabiruçu stoppage. These alternativeswere ramped up in 1Q20, impacting Conceição production, which is expected to present improvements in 2Q20.

The Fazendão mine licensed area became depleted at the end of February, as expected in its mining plan. Vale is applying to expand the licensed mining area, which is expected to be granted in 3Q20.

Southern System

The Southern System, which encompasses the Paraopeba and Vargem Grande mining hubs, produced 7.4 Mt in 1Q20, down 2.6 Mt and 4.4 Mt from 4Q19 and 1Q19, respectively, mainly due to lower third-party purchases and production restrictions at Mutuca, which was already considered in the production plan.

Looking forward, absenteeism in the Southeastern and Southern Systems connected to the COVID-19 may be mitigated by using excess personnel from the idled mines in Minas Gerais.

Midwestern System

The Midwestern System produced 0.6 Mt in 1Q20, in line with 4Q19 and 1Q19.

T4 Pellet Production

000' metric tons

1Q20

4Q19

1Q19

% change

1Q20/4Q19

1Q20/1Q19

Northern System

883

1,152

1,221

-23.4%

-27.7%

São Luis

883

1,152

1,221

-23.4%

-27.7%

Southeastern System

5,132

5,859

7,760

-12.4%

-33.9%

Tubarão 1 and 2

-

34

1,166

-100.0%

-100.0%

Itabrasco (Tubarão 3)

888

989

575

10.2%

54.4%

Hispanobras (Tubarão 4)

629

1,018

955

-38.2%

-34.1%

Nibrasco (Tubarão 5 and 6)

1,225

1,333

2,186

-8.1%

-44.0%

Kobrasco (Tubarão 7)

810

897

1,086

-9.7%

-25.4%

Tubarão 8

1,580

1,588

1,792

-0.5%

-11.8%

Southern System

-

-

1,069

-

-100.0%

F¨¢brica

-

-

515

-

-100.0%

Vargem Grande

-

-

554

-

-100.0%

Oman

912

2,404

1,970

-62.1%

-53.7%

Others

-

-

154

-

-100.0%

PELLETS PRODUCTION

6,926

9,415

12,174

-26.4%

-43.1%

PELLETS SALES

7,311

10,966

12,314

-33.3%

-40.6%

Production overview

Vale's pellets production was 6.9 Mt in 1Q20, 26.4% and 43.1% lower than in 4Q19 and 1Q19, mainly due to the voluntary stoppage of Tubarão 1 and 2 plants and pellet feed availability due to the rainy season in the Northern System and Brucutu plant partial stoppage.

Vale's revised pelletproduction guidance for 2020 is 35-40 Mt from 44 Mt, due to (i) lower pellet feed availability from the Brucutu plant related to the suspension of tailings disposal at the Norte/Laranjeiras dam; and (ii) short-term uncertainties regarding pellet demand.

Northern system

Production at the São Lu¨as pellet plant was 0.9 Mt in 1Q20, 0.3 Mt lower than in 4Q19 and 1Q19, mainly as a result of (i) higher-than-expected pellet feed moisture due to the strong rainy season; and (ii) the voluntary decision to reduce production levels due to market conditions.

Southeastern system

Production at the Tubarão pellet plants10 was 5.1 Mt in 1Q20, 0.7 Mt and 2.6 Mt lower than in 4Q19 and 1Q19, mainly due to the voluntary stoppage of Tubarão 1 and 2 plants since October 2019, Tubarão 6 unscheduled maintenance carried out in January and February and lower pellet feed availability from the Brucutu plant.

Southern system

The F¨¢brica and Vargem Grande pellet plants operations were halted on February 20th, 2019, following an ANM (Brazil's Mining National Agency) decision.

Oman operations

The Oman pellet plant production was 0.9 Mt in 1Q20, 1.5 Mt and 1.1 Mt lower than in 4Q19 and 1Q19, respectively, mainly due to lower availability of pellet feed.

Official Document


(To contact the reporter on this story: cody.wang@steelhome.cn or 86-555-2238837 18725550282)
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