In case there
isn’t already enough evidence that 2020 is shaping up as a very odd year
in commodity markets, it’s possible that the price of iron ore may soon
exceed that of coking coal.
The price of
a tonne of iron ore and coking coal, on a cost and freight delivered
basis to China, reached near parity on Tuesday, according to data from
S&P Global Platts.
Benchmark 62%
iron ore was assessed by Platts at $118 a tonne, up $1.65 from the
previous close, while coking coal was pegged at $118.50, unchanged from
the prior close.
This meant
the parity in prices between the two main ingredients needed to make
steel was 99.6%, compared to iron ore being on average 57% of the coking
coal price for the past 10 years, according to Platts.
Since the
establishment of a viable spot market for iron ore around 2008 and the
setting up of coking coal futures on the Singapore Exchange in 2014, the
price of 62% iron ore has never risen above that of coking coal.
The surge to
near parity this year is a reflection of the emerging dynamic in global
commodity markets, namely that commodities with the most exposure to
China’s apparent V-shaped recovery from the novel coronavirus are
significantly outperforming those without.
China imports
the bulk of the iron ore needed to feed its massive steel industry, with
locally mined product generally being of inferior quality and relatively
uncompetitive against the huge low-cost mines of Australia and Brazil,
the world’s top two exporters.
China’s iron
ore imports were 546.91 million tonnes in the first half of 2020, up
9.6% from the same period in 2020, according to official data.
It’s likely
that they remained strong in July, with Refinitiv vessel-tracking and
port data estimating imports of 101.6 million tonnes, although this
figure may not exactly align with official data, given differences in
when cargoes are assessed as having cleared customs.
CHINA STEEL
STRENGTH
The strength
in iron ore imports has been matched by China’s steel output, which hit
a record high on a daily basis in June of 3.05 million tonnes per day,
for a month total of 91.58 million tonnes, up 4.5% from the year earlier
month.
For the first
half, China’s steel output rose 1.4% to 499 million tonnes.
That amount
of steel would require about 384 million tonnes of coking coal to
produce, working on the industry standard of 770 kg of coking coal per
tonne of steel.
However,
China’s coking coal imports for the first half were only 38.1 million
tonnes, according to Platts.
This means
that imports meet roughly about 10% of China’s coking coal needs, with
domestic output providing the rest.
In contrast,
imports meet around 70% of China’s iron ore demand, and in turn China
buys more than two-thirds of global seaborne iron ore volumes.
What this
means is that global iron ore is far more exposed to China than is
coking coal.
The dynamic
at work is that iron ore is benefiting from its exposure to China, with
the spot price on Tuesday’s close up 48% from the low so far this year
of $79.60 a tonne on March 23.
Coking coal
has moved the other way, with Singapore futures , which are based on the
free-on-board Australia price, falling 32% from their year-to-date peak
of $161.99 a tonne to Tuesday’s close of $110.50.
Coking coal
is more exposed to the rest of the world’s steel industry, and here the
news has been far worse than China’s recovery story, with other major
steel producers such as Japan and South Korea battling to restart their
economies amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
World steel
output dropped to 148.3 million tonnes in June, down 7% from the same
month in 2019, while production in the first half was 873.1 million
tonnes, down 6% year-on-year.
While it’s
possible that a recovery in steel output ex-China will drive up demand
and prices for coking coal, it’s also the case that this would also
boost demand for seaborne iron ore.
This means it
may be some time before coking coal re-asserts its traditional dominance
over iron ore.
Source:
Reuters |