|
I Reviews on Chinese domestic coal market
for October
16-23, 2020
1.1 Coking Coal Market
Price of coking coal kept rising by 30-50 yuan/t; that on a long-term
contracted basis from large mines was mainly stable; that from local
mines in Shanxi, Shandong and Shaanxi rose by 20-40 yuan/t.
Currently, coking enterprises in main production area are in stable
operation with strong demand, and they are still bullish on the market.
It’s expected that domestic coking coal price will stay at a high level
and market price will up amid stability.
Quotation of Australian coking coal dropped. Price of I grade coking
coal decreased by $6.5 to $125-126/t; that of standard I grade coking
coal declined by $6.5 to $115.5-118/t; that of II grade coking coal
dropped by $5 to $112-113/t.
Price of Mongolian coking raw coal (5#) rose by 10-15 yuan at ports to
840-850 yuan/t; that with high ash was 820 yuan/t (in cash), up 30-40
yuan altogether this month; that of coking clean coal at ports was
stable at 1010-1040 yuan/t.
Table 1: China Coking Coal Price for October 16-23, 2020 (yuan per ton)
|
|
Domestic coking coal index |
Hard coking coal at Australian Peak Downs mine |
Coking coal |
Rich coal |
1/3 Coking coal |
Lean coal |
Gas coal |
|
Anze, Shanxi |
Liulin, Shanxi |
Tangshan, Hebei |
Lingshi, Shanxi |
Linfen, Shanxi |
Zaozhuang, Shandong |
Changzhi, Shanxi |
Jining, |
|
Shanxi |
|
2020/10/23 |
1286 |
126 |
1370 |
870 |
1380 |
980 |
1000 |
970 |
775 |
900 |
|
2020/10/16 |
1286 |
130 |
1340 |
870 |
1380 |
980 |
1000 |
970 |
775 |
870 |
|
Change |
0 |
↓4 |
↑30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
↑30 |
1.2 PCI
market
Price of domestic PCI was mainly stable while that at ports went up amid
stability. Price of PCI from large mines on a long-term contracted basis
was stable after an increase of 30 yuan; that from Changzhi, Shanxi was
680-750 yuan/t (in cash, ex-works).
In terms of ports, price of PCI at ports in East China climbed by 20-30
yuan; that at Rizhao Port jumped by 30 yuan to 940 yuan/t (bank
acceptance) with the same quantity discounts, increasing 70 yuan this
month; that of anthracite at Xuzhou Port in Jiangsu was 840-850 yuan/t
(in cash, FOT, lean and meager PCI included); that of Russian PCI at
Yangtze River ports increased by 20 yuan to 840 yuan/t (in cash); that
of PCI bituminous went up by 5 yuan to 710 yuan/t. It’s expected that
PCI price will stay strong this week.
Table 2: China PCI Price for October 16-23, 2020 (yuan per ton)
|
Price in spot market |
PCI Anthracite |
Bituminous PCI- Yangtze River Port |
Price adjustment |
PCI Anthracite |
Bituminous PCI–Shehua Group (in cash) |
|
Changzhi |
Yangtze River Port |
Australia/ USD |
Truck delivery by Lu’an Group（in
cash） |
Yangquan Coal Industry Group 4# |
Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Holding Group (FOB price) |
|
2020/10/23 |
760 |
840 |
86 |
710 |
2020/10/23 |
780 |
750 |
830 |
668 |
|
2020/10/16 |
760 |
820 |
89.25 |
705 |
2020/10/16 |
780 |
750 |
830 |
668 |
|
Change |
0 |
↑20 |
↓3.25 |
↑5 |
Change |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.3 Thermal Coal Market
Market price of thermal coal started to decline given that downstream
slowed down procurements after policy of safeguarding supply.
At Northern ports, price continued to decrease with falling
transactions. After replenishment of power plants, traders were more
willing to ship and price was close to 600 yuan/t.
In term of production area, price at pitheads slacked off. Production
and sales of most coal mines kept balanced with stable supply at origin
and positive purchase for heating. Price at origin went up and down
impacted by sluggish transactions and released output of Ordos coal
mines.
It’s expected that thermal coal price will keep low this week.
Table 3: China Thermal Coal Price for October 16-23, 2020 (yuan per ton)
|
|
Shanxi |
Qinhuangdao |
Taihe Port |
Inner Mongolia |
Guangdong |
Henan |
Shandong |
Anhui |
Jiangxi |
|
Spec. |
Q:5800 |
Q:5500 |
Q:5500 |
Q:5200 |
Q:5500 |
Q:4000 |
Q:5000 |
Q:5000 |
Q:4800 |
|
2020/10/23 |
535 |
610 |
654 |
574 |
700 |
400 |
560 |
610 |
500 |
|
2020/10/16 |
535 |
621 |
653 |
574 |
700 |
400 |
560 |
610 |
500 |
|
Change |
0 |
↓11 |
↑1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
II Market
news
＞ China
Shenhua Sept Commercial Coal Output Hit 23.5 Mlnt
＞India
imports of thermal coal and coking coal during April-September at 12
major ports decreased by 25.13% to 55.41mn t.
III Inventory at coking coal inventory
Coking coal inventory in domestic independent coking plants picked up
and was stable this week.
Capacity utilization rate of coking plants fluctuated after reaching a
record high. This week saw a slight recover and still stayed at a high
level, well supporting coking coal demand. Capacity utilization of 100
coking plants monitored by SteelHome was 89.9%, up 0.36% from last week;
that in East China was slightly recovered after maintenance of some
coking plants.
At present, coking plants enjoy great profits and are active in
producing.
Last week, available days of coking coal in coking plants decreased when
coking coal inventory stayed the same but capacity utilization rate
recovered.
As of October 22, coking coal inventory of 100 independent coking plants
calculated by SteelHome was 7.71mn t, up 423,500 t or 5.81% from 2019
average and up 13.41% on the year.
Table 4: Coking Coal and Coke Inventory in China Independent Coking
Plants for October 16-23, 2020
|
Area |
Number of Companies |
Total Capacity
(10,000 tons/year) |
Capacity Utilization% |
Coke Inventory (10,000 tons) |
Coking Coal Inventory (days) |
Coking Coal Inventory
(10,000 tons) |
|
23-October |
Up/down |
(10,000 tons) |
Up/Down |
MoM% |
Available Days |
Up/Down |
MoM% |
(10,000 tons) |
Up/Down |
MoM% |
|
Northeast China |
8 |
825 |
82.94 |
0 |
2.8 |
-1 |
-26.32 |
31.5 |
0 |
0 |
12.7 |
-0 |
-0 |
|
North China |
51 |
8663 |
90.04 |
0.32 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
393.1 |
-3.1 |
-0.78 |
13.8 |
-0.1 |
-0.72 |
|
East China |
21 |
3960 |
95.85 |
1.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
222.9 |
0 |
0 |
16.6 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
|
Central South China |
9 |
1480 |
85.1 |
0 |
0.1 |
0 |
0 |
46.1 |
0 |
0 |
10.1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Southwest China |
4 |
705 |
74.29 |
0 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
39.5 |
0 |
0 |
20.8 |
0 |
0 |
|
Northwest China |
7 |
1140 |
91.58 |
0 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
13.64 |
34.8 |
0 |
0 |
8.9 |
0 |
0 |
|
Total |
100 |
16773 |
90.07 |
0.53 |
8.6 |
-0.7 |
-7.53 |
767.9 |
-3.1 |
-0.4 |
14 |
-0.1 |
-0.71 |
IV Ocean freight
The international shipping price index kept falling. As of October 22,
the dry bulk freight index BDI of the Baltic Trade Shipping Exchange
reached 1401 points, falling 160 points or 102.5% from the 1561 points
on October 15.
At present, the sea freight from Brazil to China is 17.375 yuan/t (Cape
of Good Hope); the sea freight from Western Australia to China is $7.782
per ton (Cape of Good Hope); and India to China is $12.7 per ton
(Handy).
The domestic seaborne coal freight index turned upwards. As of October
20, the freight index closed at 786.62 points, falling 9.48 % compared
with October 13 and down 1.19%% month-on-month.
V In
the following week, focus on:
1) changes in Mongolian coal customs clearance volume.
2) changes in steel mills and coke market and production limitation in
autumn and winter;
3) coal mine safety inspections.
4) changes in spot goods at ports.
Positive factors: 1) Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was at a
high level, giving a shock to domestic coking coal; 2) Purchase was
impacted by production limitation in autumn and winter.
Negative factors: 1) Coking
plants and steel mills are active in replenishing stock, showing strong
demand on purchasing; 2) Several coking plants put forward the fifth
round of coke price hike; 3) Some types of coking coal were in shortage,
which could not be eased in a short time. |
