XVII Steel Development Strategy Conference, hosted by SteelHome, was successfully held in Shanghai Tower during 9-11 April, 2021. Over 1,000 delegates from governments, associations, steel mills, miners, traders, research institutes and media attended.

Xia Shiqing, Chief Analyst and Senior Technical Director of Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, delivered a speech titled Market Logics and Trading Tips with Possible Production Cut and Rebate Adjustment.

Mr.Xia is delivering the speech

Summary

The background of production cutbacks and export rebate: 1) China steel industry is seeing the end of “golden age”, and walking into high-quality development state; 2) crude steel capacity has sharply escalated.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) vows to control steel capacity and production, and is expected to publicize the countermeasures soon.

China may adjust steel export rebate, and sustain the import/export tariff unchanged. However, the rumor has already triggered international steel market.

In 2020, the steel export from China only accounted for 5.14 percent of domestic demand, and net export merely accounted for 3 percent. The possible adjustment in steel export rebate will have little impact on the production in 2021. The impact of the policy against price may be determined by products involved, tax range, seaborne demand and price spread between China and the international market.

China’s steel export takes roughly 12.22 percent of global trade. It is about 18 percent with reduction of internal trade within EU, and may play a huge effect on world market with the policy.

Current market background: 2021 is the 100^th anniversary year for Communist Party of China, the year to see the realization of the first 100^th year target (building a moderately welfare society), the year seeing the kickoff of 14^th-Five-Year Plan, and the year reporting complicated and severe global situation. Steel industry may take the lead in Chinese sectors to realize carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.

At the moment, Chinese economy is quickly recovering, with the lofty demand at home and abroad as seaborne buyers are restocking steel. There is still room for Chinese steel to export as international steel prices are higher than China’s.

Mr.Xia predicts that China’s steel demand will turn to ‘relatively stable’ in the future, with the cut in both supply and demand.

The current steel price is showing the signal of risks. Steel price in the second quarter may find it difficult falling, on the back of robust demand. The focus is suggested to be on the price downfall risk once the demand cools down.