The 20th Steel Development Strategy Conference, organized by SteelHome website and proudly sponsored by Youfa Group and Ouyeel, in conjunction with Henan Tianyuan and GTX Steel, and supported by Liugang Group, unfolded in Shanghai from April 19th to 21st, 2024. With over 800 esteemed guests representing more than 550 entities worldwide, including 113 steel mills, 86 raw material enterprises, and a diverse array of industry chain players, related institutions, and media outlets, the event was a resounding success.

At the specialized conference "Global Steel Landscape and Opportunities" held at 2 p.m. on April 20th, GMK Center CEO Stanislav Zinchenko delivered a presentation on the European Union Steel Market Outlook 2024-2025 via video.

Stanislav Zinchenko, GMK Center CEO

Key Points of the Speech:

1. The eurozone is adopting higher interest rates to combat inflation, which is slowing down the economy. However, inflation is gradually returning to normal, and the European Central Bank is preparing to ease monetary policy, with the first round of interest rate cuts expected in June.

2. Currently, the eurozone economy is transitioning towards a phase of cyclical recovery, but the situation remains challenging, with a prolonged trough resembling a "U-shaped" pattern.

3. Overall steel consumption in Europe is currently at a neutral level, with Germany currently on the road to recovery, which bodes well for steel consumption in Europe.

4. It is projected that actual steel consumption in the European Union will decrease by 1.5% this year, with a slight increase of 0.4% expected by 2025.

5. In the coming months, European steel market buyers are unlikely to concentrate on large-scale steel purchases to replenish inventories but will instead maintain relatively low inventory levels based on actual demand.

6. Steel imports into Europe are increasing, with steel imports into Europe in the first quarter of this year increasing by 19% year-on-year. It is expected that steel imports into Europe in the second quarter of this year will remain at around 7 million tons, roughly the same as last year.

7. Current profits of European steel mills are still considerable, with the gross profit margin of hot-rolled coils in European steel mills rising to €180 per ton at the beginning of April, close to the historical average of €200 per ton. Therefore, steel mills are not expected to shut down production lines at the moment.

8. With raw material prices stabilizing and expected increases in energy prices in the later period, it is projected that local hot coil prices in Europe will reach €700 per ton by the end of this year.

9. Currently, the apparent steel consumption in the European region is improving, and the overall profit margin of European steel mills is still favorable.