Everyone knows the tourism industry was hit hard when the global pandemic struck, but only now is the true cost of a 75 percent drop in holidaymakers becoming clear.
According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, the industry lost $900 billion in expected income in 2020 and the knock-on effect to the global economy is in the trillions.
A UNWTO report estimated the total effect on global economies is already as much as $2 trillion and unless the global tourism sector recovers faster than is currently expected, the total losses will likely be as high as $4 trillion.
The report set out three projected scenarios:
• Worst case - a similar drop in arrivals as 2020.
• Optimistic - Only 63 percent drop from 2019 arrival numbers.
• Uneven recovery - This scenario shows a recovery in rich, vaccinated nations – but a similar drop to 2020 in poorer nations, with lower vaccination rates.
The losses for 2020 are worse than previously expected, as even the worst-case scenario UNCTAD projected last year has turned out to be optimistic. It is mainly due to bans on international travel that are still in place in many countries more than 15 months after the pandemic started.
There is little hope of a speedy recovery for the travel industry, with passenger numbers dropping even further at the start of 2021, down to less than 20 percent of pre-pandemic levels, despite some vaccine passports being rolled out in Europe.
That huge figure of $4 trillion for 2020 includes all the cancelled bookings, all the flights not taken, as well as the knock-on effect on the wider economy.
The labor market in countries with large numbers of people employed in low-skilled tourism jobs are more at risk during downturns in the economy, so are used to measure the impact of the pandemic.
UNWTO estimated the biggest losers in Europe will be Ireland, Switzerland, the UK and Norway.
"Many livelihoods are really at threat," explained UNWTO's Zoritsa Urosevic.
But some parts of the world tourism economy are predicted to recover faster than others.
"There is an expectation of a certain recovery in the second half of the year, at least for North America and Europe to a certain extent," the UN Trade body UNCTAD's Ralf Peters told Reuters.
Source: CGTN |
