On the afternoon of February 14, Mr. Wu Wenzhang, Board Chairman and Founder with SteelHome, presented his ideas for 2022 during the sidelines of VIP Steel Saloon.

Wu Wenzhang, Board Chairman and Founder with SteelHome, delivering the speech

Glance of VIP Steel Saloon

Abstract

I Steel Production

China’s daily average crude steel output in Q4 2021 was only 2.466 million tons, much lower than the 2.95 million tons of Q4 2020. The daily crude steel output in Q1 2021 was averaged at 3.01 million tons, while reached 3.21 million tons at the highest in Q2 2021. Mr. Wu believes that the crude steel output data in Q4 2021 was lower than the actual production by at least 5 million tons per month and the National Bureau of Statistics will probably revise the 2021 full year production data to around 1045-1050 million tons. Besides, Mr. Wu also proposed in December last year that Chinese steel market would be in short supply in Q1 2022 considering that daily average crude steel output reaches 2.8 million tons in January, 2.8 million tons in February, 2.9 million tons in March and 3 million tons in April.   

II Downstream Demand

Demand depends on funds and where the funds are invested. The 20th CPC National Congress will be held in H2 2022, and all local governments will make every efforts to improve their performance in H1 2022, mainly reflecting in the growth of GDP. The growth of GDP comes from the following three aspects. First is the foreign trade exports, which will not increase significantly this year. Second is consumption, which is expected is grow by at most 6-7%. Third is investment, the main driver of GDP growth. In order to ensure steady growth of economy this year, China’s GDP should at least increase by 5% in Q1 2022. The growth is mainly due to the investment. The investment also includes three aspects, real estate, manufacturing and infrastructure. Investment for real estate will be flat or increase slightly this year. Manufacturing investment will be limited and will not likely increase largely. Infrastructure investment is the key and it depends on the availability of funds. Demand for infrastructure this year started early. If effective demand cannot be formed in the first quarter, it will catch up in the second quarter. Mr. Wu believes that the demand will not be fully activated until March 15. Also, demand in April and May will maintain robust, and steel prices will remain high.

III Steel Price

Mr. Wu believes that rebar spot price will reach the highest at 5200-5500 yuan per tonne in April or May this year. Steel prices in H1 2022 will be higher than that in H2 2022. Iron ore spot price will be 800-1050 yuan per tonne, and futures price will be 700-900 yuan per tonne. Iron ore import price will be hard to break below 120USD per tonne.