According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.2 percent in February, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month. The nonmanufacturing business activity index was 51.6 percent, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall recovery of the non-manufacturing sector has accelerated.
The month-on-month increases in the two indexes show that the Chinese economy has maintained a good momentum of overall recovery.
Under normal circumstances, the expansion of manufacturing production and business activities slows down in the Spring Festival month due to the influence of holiday factors. February this year was no exception, with the production index of 50.4 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month. The new orders index rose 1.4 percentage points to 50.7 percent due to continued strong exports and policy efforts.
However, the structural characteristics are also obvious. Upstream industry demand remains strong and continues to increase downstream costs. This structural demand is related to infrastructure and exports.
In the first two months of this year, 877.5 billion yuan ($139 billion) of new special bonds were issued, most of which went to infrastructure. The authorities should heed relevant lessons of the past, and while stabilizing the economy, continue to promote the implementation of policies to ensure supply and price stability.
The hoarding of coal, iron ore and other metals should be severely punished to prevent such practices driving up the prices of upstream commodities and manufacturing costs with the help of speculative capital.
Russia is the world's main supplier of oil and gas, aluminum, wheat and other products, while Ukraine supplies a large amount of agricultural products such as corn and wheat, as well as neon, krypton, xenon and other materials. The Russia-Ukraine tensions will push up global prices for energy, materials and agricultural commodities, which will unavoidably affect the downstream enterprises and businesses in China and this requires the attention of Chinese policymakers.
In general, domestic demand began to warm up in February with the construction industry resuming growth, and the macro economy achieving stable operation. However, it should be seen that the structural demand is mainly driven by infrastructure and exports, which requires stabilizing the supply and prices of upstream primary products to avoid them having a major impact on downstream manufacturing. Meanwhile, the service sector, which has been affected by the epidemic, still needs to be boosted. Therefore, while the macro economy should remain stable, the government needs to consider introducing more policies to support the service sector and boost consumption.
Source: ChinaDaily |
