18th Steel Development Strategy Conference & China Steel Industry
Summit for 2023 Market, hosted by SteelHome, was successfully held
in Huangshan City, Anhui Province, during November 18-20, 2022. This
summit was jointly held by Youfa Group, Magang (Group) Holding,
Zheng Da Pipe Company, Nanjing Iron and Steel Company and Ouyeel.
Co-hosts were Shanghai Futures Exchange, Pangu Yunlian Company,
Tranvic Group, C&D Metals Company, Liuzhou Iron and Steel Group, GTX
Steel Company, Nanjing Gangfeng Industrial Company, Xinjiang Bayi
Iron and Steel Company, Shougang Group Shuicheng Iron and Steel
Company, and Cargill. Over 500 delegates from governments,
associations, steel mills (100 companies), raw material producers
(76 companies), traders, research institutes and media attended the
At 8:30 a.m. on November 19, the summit forum of this session
opened. Wu Wenzhang, founder and board chairman of SteelHome website,
delivered a speech on "New Changes · New Patterns · New Strategies".
Wu Wenzhang, Founder and board chairman of SteelHome website
I New Changes
1.1 In the new era, China economic and social development is
undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and the cooperation
and competition between China and the United States directly affect
Russia-Ukraine war has intensified regional instability and is
changing the supply and demand pattern of global energy, food and
some bulk commodities.
1.3 Building a modern socialist country in all respects: Modern
industrial system, rural revitalization, coordinated development of
regions and high-level opening up.
II New Patterns
2.1 The supply shock in the steel, raw materials and fuel markets is
still severe, and steel overcapacity and oversupply in China
domestic market will exist for a long time.
2.2 The rapid growth of investment in overseas steel production
capacity may weaken the competitive advantage of China steel
industry in the international market.
2.3 In the future, China iron and steel industry will still be based
on meeting the demands of the domestic market, and the proportion of
direct exports of iron and steel products will remain at a low
III New Strategies
3.1 It is a long-term strategy for the development of China steel
industry to implement energy conservation, environmental protection
and low-carbon manufacturing, and comprehensively promote the green
and high-quality development of the steel industry.
3.2 To accelerate mergers and acquisitions and restructuring and
structural adjustments, improve industrial concentration, optimize
industrial layout and specialized division of labor, and enhance
3.3 To promote the application of smart manufacturing technologies
such as informatization, digitalization, and artificial intelligence
to accurately meet the diverse and individual needs of users.
IV Prospects for 2023
4.1 It is expected that steel prices will rise with fluctuation from
this year to the first quarter of next year, and steel prices will
be low first and then high throughout the year. The market supply of
iron ore is expected to be further loosened, the tight supply of
coking coal and coke will be significantly eased, and the cost of
steel will show a downward trend.
4.2 Prices in this winter and next spring: It is conservatively
estimated that the price rebound of iron ore, coking coal and coke,
and steel in the current round will continue until April next year,
but the range of this rebound is not wide, and there may be several
retracements during the period.
4.3 The average price of rebar (will fluctuate within the range of
3100-4500) in 2023 will be 3800 yuan/ton; the average price of
hot-rolled coil (3150-4550) will be 3850 yuan/ton; the average price
of iron ore (75-125) will be 100 US dollars/ton; and the average
price of coke (Linfen I grade coke) will decrease by 300 yuan/ton
compared with this year.