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Feb.06.2023 1USD=6.7737RMB
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Wu Wenzhang: New Changes · New Patterns · New Strategies

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18th Steel Development Strategy Conference & China Steel Industry Summit for 2023 Market, hosted by SteelHome, was successfully held in Huangshan City, Anhui Province, during November 18-20, 2022. This summit was jointly held by Youfa Group, Magang (Group) Holding, Zheng Da Pipe Company, Nanjing Iron and Steel Company and Ouyeel. Co-hosts were Shanghai Futures Exchange, Pangu Yunlian Company, Tranvic Group, C&D Metals Company, Liuzhou Iron and Steel Group, GTX Steel Company, Nanjing Gangfeng Industrial Company, Xinjiang Bayi Iron and Steel Company, Shougang Group Shuicheng Iron and Steel Company, and Cargill. Over 500 delegates from governments, associations, steel mills (100 companies), raw material producers (76 companies), traders, research institutes and media attended the event.

At 8:30 a.m. on November 19, the summit forum of this session opened. Wu Wenzhang, founder and board chairman of SteelHome website, delivered a speech on "New Changes · New Patterns · New Strategies". 

Wu Wenzhang, Founder and board chairman of SteelHome website

Speech points:

I New Changes

1.1 In the new era, China economic and social development is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and the cooperation and competition between China and the United States directly affect global development.

1.2 The Russia-Ukraine war has intensified regional instability and is changing the supply and demand pattern of global energy, food and some bulk commodities.

1.3 Building a modern socialist country in all respects: Modern industrial system, rural revitalization, coordinated development of regions and high-level opening up.

II New Patterns

2.1 The supply shock in the steel, raw materials and fuel markets is still severe, and steel overcapacity and oversupply in China domestic market will exist for a long time.

2.2 The rapid growth of investment in overseas steel production capacity may weaken the competitive advantage of China steel industry in the international market.

2.3 In the future, China iron and steel industry will still be based on meeting the demands of the domestic market, and the proportion of direct exports of iron and steel products will remain at a low level.

III New Strategies

3.1 It is a long-term strategy for the development of China steel industry to implement energy conservation, environmental protection and low-carbon manufacturing, and comprehensively promote the green and high-quality development of the steel industry.

3.2 To accelerate mergers and acquisitions and restructuring and structural adjustments, improve industrial concentration, optimize industrial layout and specialized division of labor, and enhance market competitiveness.

3.3 To promote the application of smart manufacturing technologies such as informatization, digitalization, and artificial intelligence to accurately meet the diverse and individual needs of users.

IV Prospects for 2023

4.1 It is expected that steel prices will rise with fluctuation from this year to the first quarter of next year, and steel prices will be low first and then high throughout the year. The market supply of iron ore is expected to be further loosened, the tight supply of coking coal and coke will be significantly eased, and the cost of steel will show a downward trend.

4.2 Prices in this winter and next spring: It is conservatively estimated that the price rebound of iron ore, coking coal and coke, and steel in the current round will continue until April next year, but the range of this rebound is not wide, and there may be several retracements during the period.

4.3 The average price of rebar (will fluctuate within the range of 3100-4500) in 2023 will be 3800 yuan/ton; the average price of hot-rolled coil (3150-4550) will be 3850 yuan/ton; the average price of iron ore (75-125) will be 100 US dollars/ton; and the average price of coke (Linfen I grade coke) will decrease by 300 yuan/ton compared with this year.


(To contact the reporter on this story: leo.ji@steelhome.cn or 86-555-2238932 18616060095)
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